The latest salary cap projection arrived in December, hinting at a modest increase. As it turns out, that update undersold where the NFL’s 2025 salary ceiling will check in.
That projection pointed to the 2025 cap falling between $265M-$275M, but ESPN.com’s Dan Graziano indicates a boom beyond $280M is now in play. The NFL has informed teams it will instead land between $277.5M and $281.5M. Anywhere in this range will mark at least a $22M increase from 2024.
This greater-than-expected increase will not break the record 2024’s cap set, but it be a welcome sight after the rumor that had indicated a lesser jump would take place. Teams suddenly will have a few extra million to throw around in free agency and to allocate toward extensions. This will also mark a massive jump from where the cap was just four years ago.
The COVID-19 pandemic leading to empty stadiums or heavily capped attendance in 2020 led to the 2021 cap dropping to $182.5M. Four years later, the cap will have risen by nearly $100M.
This continues a stream of growth, a trend that did not develop during the 2011 CBA, which featured stagnancy it its early years before roughly $10M-per-year climbs as the decade progressed. A 2020 CBA that has included two additional playoff games, a 17th regular-season contest, new TV deals and increased gambling partnerships has seen cap spikes by more than $16M each year since the pandemic-induced decrease of 2021 and by at least $20M three times since then.
Last year’s record-setting jump ($30.6M) could have featured a bigger spike, as the league’s memo (via The Athletic’s Dianna Russini) indicates a smoothing effort took place to produce a more gradual climb rather than have a near-$40M bump in 2024 and a far lesser surge this year. Roughly $1M of this year’s bump will also come via performance-based pay.
The 2024 increase brought new position-record contracts at many positions. Chris Jones eclipsed the salary ceiling Aaron Donald‘s then-outlier contract had set for defensive tackles, while Chiefs teammate Creed Humphrey is more than $4M clear (AAV-wise) than any other center. The guard market saw Landon Dickerson check in with a new record ($21M per year) just before the 2024 league year opened, while both Patrick Surtain and Jalen Ramsey agreed to deals that broke the cornerback record by a substantial margin. Christian McCaffrey later broke his own RB AAV record by securing a two-year, $38M extension last summer.
The two highest-profile positional spikes came at quarterback and wide receiver, respectively. The $30M-AAV WR club expanded from one to six, with Justin Jefferson‘s $35M-per-year contract the new standard. After the $50M-per-year QB club added several new members, Dak Prescott used unique leverage to secure a $60M-AAV extension hours before the Cowboys’ Week 1 game. While another quarterback topping that this year may be unlikely — barring true Bills-Josh Allen renegotiations transpiring — position records elsewhere (likely headlined by Ja’Marr Chase at receiver) are likely thanks in part to Wednesday’s news of better-than-expected cap growth.
Here is how the cap has looked over the past two CBAs:
- 2011: $120.4M
- 2012: $120.6M
- 2013: $123.6M
- 2014: $133M
- 2015: $143.3M
- 2016: $155.3M
- 2017: $167M
- 2018: $177.2M
- 2019: $188.2M
- 2020: $198.2M
- 2021: $182.5M
- 2022: $208.2M
- 2023: $224.8M
- 2024: $255.4M
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