One reason that analyst Dan Orlovsky believes that Ty Simpson, not Fernando Mendoza, “is the best quarterback” in the 2026 NFL Draft class is that Orlovsky thinks Simpson made “more NFL throws” in college than Mendoza.
Critics of Orlovsky’s takes have pointed out that Simpson recorded only 15 starts during his college career. On Thursday, ESPN’s Bill Connelly touched upon what Simpson did and didn’t do during games that ultimately will impact his draft stock.
What do the stats say about Ty Simpson’s “NFL throws?”
“In the past two seasons, he attempted only 562 dropbacks (67th out of 83) and only 142 against man coverage (he averaged only 6.3 yards per dropback against man, which ranked 59th),” Connelly wrote about Simpson. “And though he almost never turned the ball over, he was taking the easy way out most of the time: He ranked just 54th in yards per completion (11.7) and 55th in yards per dropback (6.6), and he threw only 12.7% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield (54th).”
It feels like a foregone conclusion that the Las Vegas Raiders will make Mendoza the draft’s first pick and then have him develop while serving as a backup for veteran Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile, there remain far more questions than answers regarding Simpson’s short-term future. Some continue to think he could slide all the way to the second round of the player-selection process.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. is among those who believe Simpson will ultimately be a second-round choice.
Are some overrating Ty Simpson’s upside?
“Though the film certainly suggests good pocket technique, Simpson still ranked 44th in sack rate (5.5%) — despite being protected by likely top-15 pick Kadyn Proctor at left tackle — and 48th in sacks-to-pressures ratio (17.2%),” Connelly added. “There’s a chance we’re overrating that facet of his game, and if he gets hit a lot while never attempting big-time throws downfield, where exactly is the upside here?”
Perhaps Simpson will emerge as a steal for a team able to sit him for a year or even two behind a proven commodity. If such a scenario plays out, Simpson eventually won’t care if he has to wait until April 24 to hear his name called during the draft.
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