Extension Candidate: Terry McLaurin

There’s been no shortage of noise coming out of the District of Columbia — technically 25 miles or so west of DC — concerning the extension negotiations for veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin. It should be a no-brainer: a second-team All-Pro heading into a contract year with a $25.5MM cap hit while he’s catching balls from a quarterback on a rookie deal? To this point, though, the two parties have been unable to make progress towards a new deal.

It started early in the offseason, with the team acknowledging that an extension for McLaurin was something they were interested in. McLaurin showed the team how serious he was about receiving new terms when he held out of Organized Team Activities and mandatory minicamp, racking up over $104K in fines Reportedly, the Commanders were taken aback at the difficulties they were having reaching agreeable terms with their star receiver, and as it became clear that the two sides were very far apart on an agreement, McLaurin voiced his frustrations with the procedures.

But why has this been such a struggle? Does the team not want to lower McLaurin’s cap hit and make sure he’s around for all of the years Jayden Daniels plays on a rookie deal? It seems multiple factors are proving challenging when negotiations are taking place as performance and status say one thing, while age and potential for decline say another.

To start, McLaurin just completed his best season to date. While he didn’t put up a career high in receiving yards (1,096), his 13 touchdowns catches were more than half of his five-year career touchdown-total coming into the season (25). He also did it all in the fewest targets since his rookie year, showing improved efficiency with his new quarterback.

That’s the other thing to consider when looking at McLaurin’s career production. After falling 81 yards short of 1,000 receiving yards in his 14-game rookie campaign, McLaurin has been a 1,000-yard receiver in every season since. While that’s impressive on its own, consider that he put up consistent production while catching passes off the arms of players like Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell. He’s a modern-day Andre Johnson in that regard. Now that you’ve paired him with a talented, young passer, he puts up an All-Pro season.

So, what does his production say he should be making on a new deal? First, let’s set the floor. Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins set the new mark for WR2’s this year, surpassing Jaylen Waddle as the league’s highest-paid WR2 with an average annual value of $28.75MM. As a high-performing WR1, McLaurin should at least be making more than the highest-paid WR2. After that, the comparisons become difficult to make. The top-earning receivers market has drastically jumped in recent years with Ja’Marr Chase (AAV of $40.25MM), Justin Jefferson ($35MM), and CeeDee Lamb ($34MM) leading the pack.

Age becomes a factor, as well, though. Coming in as a 24-year-old rookie, McLaurin is set to turn 30 this season. Tyreek Hill was 30 years old when he signed his most recent contract ($30MM) that gave him a $54MM signing bonus. Older receivers like 29-year-old Calvin Ridley ($23MM), 32-year-old Davante Adams ($22MM), 29-year-old Chris Godwin ($22MM), 31-year-old Stefon Diggs ($21.17MM), and 30-year-old Mike Evans ($20.5MM) hurt McLaurin’s case. D.K. Metcalf ($33MM), though two years younger that McLaurin, may have helped McLaurin’s case a bit with his recent four-year, $132MM extension in Pittsburgh.

The last point of comparison may come from his status as an All-Pro. Chase and Jefferson were both first-teamers, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown ($32MM), while joining McLaurin as second-team All-Pros were Lamb and A.J. Brown ($32MM). While the lowest AAV of those five coming in at $32MM, one would expect that to be a target for McLaurin, as well.

Ultimately, there’s so many directions in which this deal can go. We’ve focused mainly on AAV, but term length, guarantees, and fee structure can all play huge roles in negotiating that AAV up or down. McLaurin could settle for a two-year commitment in order to try and get up to $33MM or $34MM. The Commanders could try to backload base salary, while supplementing the low-salaried early years with a substantial signing bonus.

There’s no shortage of predictions for how this contract may end up looking, and that’s one of the reasons why there’s been so little progress and so much frustration. The two parties are expected to come to terms at some point; the oft-injured Deebo Samuel can be strong while on the field, and behind those two, the receiving corps depth is either old or unproven. Look to McLaurin’s participation in training camp, and depending on what we see, we may expect an extension in the days leading up to the regular season.